Data and Methods for: ‘A Majority of Ukrainians Support Joining NATO – Why Does This Matter for the Conflict?’

by Dr. Olga Onuch (UK – PI), Dr. Javier P. Sandoval (Postdoc)

The sampling of all three of the surveys discussed in our post is consistent. The surveys capture a national representative sample of the adult population (18+) of Ukraine. Notably, collecting data in Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk and Luhansk. None of the surveys cover Crimea whole or in part, as per legal requirements of conducting research in Ukraine. We highlight that the modes of the surveys changed during the pandemic. In 2014, the Ukraine Crisis Election Panel Survey (UCEPS) carried out a three-wave panel which was conducted in-person and face to face. The first wave of the MOBILISE panel was in-person employing CAPI mode. Wave 2 of the MOBILISE panel moved to telephone (CATI) mode due to ethics requirements of conducting research during the COVID pandemic. The Identity and Border in Flux: The Case of Ukraine (IBIF) data was collected using telephone (CATI) mode following KIIS methodology. The data are all weighted using standard KIIS post-stratification weights.

The second wave of the MOBILISE survey was conducted from January 8 till February 25, 2021(N=1640).

The survey included four parts:

  • Main Panel Subsample (re-survey of participants of the first wave of the study MOBILISE: National survey in Ukraine: March 2019) – n=383 respondents;
  • Booster Panel Subsample (re-survey of participants of the first wave of the study MOBILISE: Oversampling in Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipro, Kharkiv and Lviv) – 128 respondents;
  • Main New Entries Subsample (Nationally representative survey of 1004 respondents);
  • Booster New Entries Subsample (oversampling (n=125) in Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipro, Kharkiv and Lviv).

Data for Figure 1: Support for Joining NATO 2014-2021

UCEPS Panel Wave One May 2014UCEPS Panel Wave Two June/July 2014UCEPS Panel Wave Three November/December 2014MOBILISE Panel Wave One March/April 2019IBIF Cross-section  April 2020MOBILISE Panel Wave Two January/February 2021
Completely/Somewhat Agree30.55%37.3%43.63%40.96%46.36%56.16%
Completely/Somewhat Disagree47.25%42.2%34.5%37.39%30.98%32.90%

Data for Figure 2: Support for Joining NATO by Region

West MOBILISE W1 2019West IBIF 2020West MOBILISE W2 2021Center MOBILISE W1 2019Center IBIF 2020Center MOBILISE W2 2021South MOBILISE W1 2019South IBIF 2020
Completely/Somewhat Agree66.4%64.1%73.3%46.2%48.1%62.4%15.5%34.2%
Completely/Somewhat Disagree14.9%29.2%17.0%27.5%39.7%25.3%62.1%53.1%